Thought of the week

A potential trade war could cause lasting damage to all countries involved. For this reason, the global financial markets have also reacted negatively in recent days. This topic is therefore both the driving force and the omnipresent theme of the current days.

Digital Asset News

Concerns over a global trade war continue to put pressure on traditional and cryptocurrency markets as investors prepare for a possible tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump on April 2. This could determine Bitcoin's price performance over the course of the month.

Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on January 20, the day of his inauguration as president.

The threat of global tariffs has led to increased inflation concerns, limiting investor demand for risk assets. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin
fell by 18% and the S&P 500 (SPX) index by more than 7% in the two months following the first tariff announcement.
“Going forward, April 2 will attract more attention as a potential inflection point for new US tariff announcements,” said Stella Zlatareva.
The April 2 announcement is expected to include details on reciprocal trade tariffs for the US's major trading partners. The measures are intended to reduce the country's trade deficit, estimated at USD 1.2 trillion, and boost domestic production.

Despite the increasing uncertainty, large Bitcoin holders - the so-called “whales” who own between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC - have continued to buy.The global stablecoin supply could reach $1 trillion by the end of 2025, becoming a major catalyst for the growth of the crypto market, according to David Pakman, managing partner of crypto investment firm CoinFund.
“We're in an upswing for stablecoin adoption, which is likely to continue to grow dramatically this year,” Pakman explained on Cointelegraph's Chainreaction on X live show on March 27. “We could jump from $225 billion in stablecoins to $1 trillion this calendar year alone.”
He noted that such growth, while modest compared to global financial markets, would be a “momentous” change for blockchain-based finance.
Pakman also suggested that the surge of capital flowing into blockchain, coupled with growing interest in crypto exchange-traded index funds (ETFs), could further boost activity in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space:
“If we see the moment this year when ETFs are allowed to distribute staking rewards or interest income to investors, it will lead to a really significant increase in DeFi activity in the broadest sense.”

Meanwhile, the use of stablecoins for daily payments is on the rise, highlighting the effectiveness of blockchain-based transactions.
According to industry leaders and legal experts, U.S. crypto regulation needs more clarity on stablecoins and banking services before lawmakers prioritize tax reform.
“In my opinion, taxes are not necessarily a priority when it comes to improving crypto regulation,” said Mattan Erder, general counsel of the decentralized layer 3 blockchain network Orbs.
A “tailored regulatory approach” to areas such as securities laws and the removal of “barriers in banking”, on the other hand, is of the utmost urgency for US policymakers to create “more opportunities” for the industry, Erder told Cointelegraph.
“The new Trump administration is clearly fixated on crypto and is taking steps that we could only dream of a few years ago (even during his first term),” he said. He continued: “It is likely that crypto regulation will be designed to be all encompassing and provide much clearer and more sensible regulation in all areas, including tax.”
Despite the government's recent opening to crypto, industry experts emphasize that crypto companies could continue to face difficulties in gaining bank access until at least January 2026.
“It's premature to say that debanking is over yet, as Trump won't have the opportunity to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chairman until January,” said Caitlin Long.

Digital Asset Market

Market review and outlook

The majority of digital assets experienced further setbacks last week. The global financial markets also experienced negative price developments due to possible new tariff announcements by the US government and cyclical market weakness in the absence of positive catalysts. As a result, Bitcoin was unable to build up any momentum and oscillated towards the strong support zone just above half of ~$80,000, especially over the weekend, and is currently at levels that are heading for a retest of the support level at ~$81,500. This underpins the fact that digital assets and the global financial markets are currently being controlled by “unpredictable” events and are therefore increasingly holding cash positions and avoiding risks. This week will be very exciting for medium-term price developments and the markets will react very sensitively to these announcements.

Chart technology

From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin remains in the trend channel between ~$80,000 - ~$90,000, but the lower end could be tested again and if this support level does not hold, further negativity could follow. Last week, Bitcoin climbed back towards ~$90,000 and, in line with a pitch-black trading Friday, experienced major setbacks which continued on Monday morning. This burgeoning volatility and negativity shows that there is little “self-confidence” in the markets! Overall, the market is still in a risky and important phase, which could determine the medium-term price trend.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$84,000, ~$89,000 ~$92,000
The next price targets in the event of a negative development: ~$80,000, ~$76,500 ~$72,000

Trading idea

If the tariff announcements turn out to be lower than expected, all digital assets would probably experience a volatile upswing and have a good risk/reward ratio. Otherwise, a high investment ratio should be avoided.