Thought of the week

A bull market is not a market phase in which the prices of individual assets only trend upwards. Cyclical weakness and sell-offs in an overarching trend are sensible and important for rational market development. The past few months should therefore be seen as precisely those that have helped to dampen exaggerated expectations, regulate the emotionality of the market and introduce rationality. As a result, a possible new trend may now emerge.

Digital Asset News

Bitcoin may have bottomed out and recovered towards $90,000 after US President Donald Trump signaled his willingness to ease tariffs and the Federal Reserve resisted last week's short-term pressure.
Bitcoin is trying to make a bottom, helped by Trump's recent turn to “flexibility” on the upcoming reciprocal tariffs on April 2, softening his earlier rhetoric, said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
The Fed signaled at its March 18-19 meeting that it would also look past near-term inflationary pressures and lay the groundwork for possible future easing.
Powell's slightly dovish tone suggests that the Fed will maintain its stance, providing further support for a recovery in equity prices.
He said these weekly reversal indicators have reverted to levels where past bull markets resumed, such as in September 2023 - spurred by the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund narrative - and in August 2024 as the US election approached.

In short, the technical backdrop is now back at a point where a new uptrend is plausible.

Several altcoins have already broken out of their downtrend channels and are trading at “more attractive levels”.Bitcoin is approaching a two-week high at the end of the first quarter as trader sentiment diverges from improving technicals, and so here are some interesting key takeaways summarized:

1. Bitcoin market participants are positioned for a new BTC price dip that could even form new multi-month lows.
2. The PCE week coincides with the last full trading week in March, and risk assets are showing a hint of optimism.
3. In terms of BTC price strength, the RSI is increasingly calling for a continuation of the uptrend.
4. Short-term Bitcoin holders are under pressure in the face of significant unrealized losses.
5. Stablecoin shares on Binance reached record highs, which researchers see as a positive signal for investor confidence.

However, the mood among traders remains cautious. The bulls still have a lot of work to do to trigger a reliable uptrend, they warn, and although BTC/USD has risen almost 15% from its multi-month lows from earlier this month, it could well see another decline.
Market sentiment has been restored after short liquidations hit $87,100. Now could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake up the market again.
“We could see a pullback from here in the next 1-2 weeks, a retracement of this rally.”
The PCE reading, known as the Fed's “preferred” inflation indicator, came in below expectations last month and the upcoming numbers are expected to be largely identical.
Citing the Fed's own estimates, financial market research firm Bespoke saw positive developments for the development of risk-on sentiment.
“The Fed's inflation model currently projects that both the headline and core CPI and PCE inflation indices will have two handles in March,” it said last week.
“This creates scope for further rate cuts.”The current bitcoin “bear market,” defined as a decline of 20% or more from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last 90 days, according to market analyst Timothy Peterson.
Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur about once a year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024.
The analyst predicted that BTC will not go deep below the $50,000 price level due to underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also expressed the view that it is unlikely that BTC will fall below $80,000 due to momentum. The analyst added:
“There could be a drop in the next 30 days, followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15. You can see that in the charts around day 120. “That would probably be enough of a headline to bring weak hands back into the market and drive Bitcoin even higher.”
The digital asset experienced a sharp downturn after US President Trump imposed tariffs on several US trading partners, triggering counter-tariffs on US exports and leading to fears of an ongoing trade war.

Digital Asset Market

Market review and outlook

The majority of digital assets experienced a volatile and positive breakout last week after weeks of negativity. Bitcoin was able to confirm the trend channel that had formed and is now trending towards the upper end of it, setting its sights on the $90,000 mark once again! The global financial markets experienced a slightly positive but not significant trading week. This general medium-term positivity was triggered by Jerome Powell's statements that interest rate cuts are on the cards, even if this FED meeting remained at a “zero rate”. Digital assets in particular are now experiencing renewed ETF capital inflows after weeks in the doldrums, creating cyclical strength and renewed optimism. This underpins the fact that digital assets are strongly characterized by momentum and correlate strongly with the Nasdaq. If the “sell-off” in tech stocks is over, a positive trend could be established. In particular, altcoins that have sold off sharply could show interesting chart patterns.

Chart technology

From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is positioned in the trend channel between ~$80,000 and ~$90,000, which represents strong support on the one hand and a small resistance on the other from a cyclical perspective. Should the global financial markets experience a positive trading week, Bitcoin could quickly jump above the $90,000 resistance with the help of significant ETF inflows and generate positive sentiment. Last week, Bitcoin climbed ~8% intraday from the bottom of the trend channel, then consolidated and has now risen to those same levels at ~$87,500 to start the week. This burgeoning volatility highlights the need to understand cyclical buying and selling phases by institutional buyers to develop a clear understanding of market phases! Overall, the market is still in a consolidating phase, which shows temporary strength and can therefore serve as a good indicator for medium-term positivity.

The next upside price targets: ~$90,800, ~$92,700 ~$95,000

The next price targets in the event of a negative development: ~$85,000, ~$81,000 ~$76,500

Trading idea

If the positive trend signs continue, almost all altcoins with high volumes, including Bitcoin, are suitable for a low-risk medium-term entry. The risk should be selected in such a way that a certain volatility (~6%) does not trigger the stop loss, as increased volatility could precede it.