Spotlight

Last week, the global financial markets experienced consolidation and hardly any significant price movements. Bitcoin was also unable to set any new positive accents, but consolidated instead. These phases of “easing” in the market are of fundamental importance, as they can “prevent” volatile sell-offs by keeping the market within a price range that many market participants can understand, meaning that there is little or no reason for above-average volatility.

Digital Asset News

M2 Global Money Supply vs. Bitcoin Price (Global Overview)

The evolution of global M2 money supply compared to Bitcoin price since 2022. Certain periods show correlation, especially during monetary expansion or tightening cycles. 

Bitcoin dominance vs. crypto market caps (BTC vs. altcoins)

Bitcoin's strength in the crypto market over time. The chart shows BTC market cap, altcoin market cap, and Bitcoin dominance (%). Increases in dominance often reflect market preference for Bitcoin over riskier altcoins.As a result of the sharp price increases in recent weeks, Bitcoin's dominance of the overall digital asset market has also risen noticeably and is currently back above 60%.

Institutional Inflows into Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs

Capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, shown in monthly USD bars. The data highlights rising institutional interest in regulated crypto exposure.
The last few weeks have made it clear that increased inflows into Bitcoin ETFs often also have a positive impact on the price performance of digital assets. Cyclical highs in inflows also led to local highs and even a new all-time high in Bitcoin.

Weekly Spot Volume vs. Bitcoin Price Movement

Weekly spot market volume overlaid with Bitcoin price movements. Current volume patterns suggest institutions are driving the market, while retail activity remains relatively muted.Even though Bitcoin dominates the market, a lot of volume is traded in altcoins. This means that for many market participants, Bitcoin serves more as a means of storage and altcoins serve more as an object of speculation and are therefore “exchanged” more frequently. A high spot volume often occurs on trading days with above-average volatility.

Market review and outlook

The past trading week was characterised by contrary market movements, in line with the movements of the global financial markets. While Bitcoin initially provided further optimism by establishing support above half of the psychologically important $100,000 mark, this was followed by a strong rise to a new all-time high within a few days due to global political positivity, which corresponds to an increase of ~10%. After a slight easing and low trading volumes at the weekend, the start of the week was again positive, which means that the all-time high could possibly be tested again in the next few days. Based on fundamental developments and news, it was a relatively quiet week. This underlines the fact that market rises are characterised by long-term volume and the proportion of short-term speculation is likely to be low. As a result, the current market phase is a healthy one and could therefore be of longer duration.

Chart technology

Bitcoin's new all-time high established a new peak at $112,000, with strong support at ~$106,500. Long-term forecasting around new all-time highs is always opaque, which is why support levels should be looked at to anticipate a continuation of the trend. If Bitcoin moves above half of the support levels this week, further upswings are likely. If the trend breaks, a volatile decline is to be expected. In the event of a slightly positive consolidation of Bitcoin, altcoins could show a cyclical outperformance and rise more strongly; if temporary setbacks occur here too, altcoins are likely to fall more sharply than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin upside targets: $112,000, $115,500, $118,000
Bitcoin downside targets: $106,500, $104,000, $101,500
Ethereum support zone: $2,440
Ethereum resistance zone: $2,735