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June 30, 2025

Bitcoin's Comeback: Defying Geopolitical Headwinds

Ellipse 73
Jannick Bröring, Chief Asset Management Officer

Spotlight

This past week, the digital asset market demonstrated remarkable resilience, navigating a complex macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Despite ongoing global tensions, particularly concerning the Middle East, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed significant recovery and consolidation.

After a turbulent period, highlighted by news of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22nd, which triggered over $1 billion in liquidations and saw Bitcoin briefly dip below $99,000, the market has shown a notable rebound. The immediate shock from these geopolitical events appears to have been absorbed, with the market's fundamental strength contributing to this recovery. Ethereum has also shown strength, reflecting a maturing investor base capable of absorbing external shocks and maintaining price levels. The market concludes the week in a phase of healthy consolidation and recovery.

 

Digital Asset News


Bitcoin, which had reached a local high near $112,000 in late May, experienced a sharp correction during the week of June 22nd. The price dipped significantly, falling below $99,000 on June 22nd, largely in response to intensified geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This period of heightened volatility saw a wave of liquidations across the crypto market. However, Bitcoin has since shown a strong recovery, climbing back above the psychological $100,000mark and stabilizing around $107,000 - $108,000 by June 26th. This rebound indicates that while geopolitical events can trigger immediate reactions, the underlying market sentiment remains resilient, pointing to a phase of healthy recovery.


The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies. In recent years, a stronger DXY (meaning a stronger dollar) has often correlated with pressure on Bitcoin's price. Conversely, a weaker DXY can sometimes indicate a "risk-on" sentiment in global markets, and in such environments, investors have increasingly turned to Bitcoin as a potential store of value, especially as the dollar's purchasing power faces challenges. This general inverse relationship offers a useful perspective when analyzing Bitcoin's movements.

Market review and outlook

Despite significant volatility this past week, particularly due to the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the digital asset market demonstrated a phase of healthy recovery and consolidation. Bitcoin, after a sharp dip below $99,000 following news of U.S. airstrikes, has shown remarkable resilience, recovering above $100,000 and stabilizing around $107,000 - $108,000. This robust performance, marked by quick market absorption of complex global signals, continued to underscore digital assets' inherent strength and a maturing investor base. The market's ability to quickly rebound from a major geopolitical shock highlights its increasing sophistication.

While the Fed has signaled the possibility of future rate cuts, their cautious approach, particularly amidst lingering inflation and geopolitical concerns, typically limits risk appetite in traditional markets. However, the digital asset space showed its capacity to hold firm, reflecting a maturing investor base less prone to broad market contagion.

Chart technology

This past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, breaking below key support levels following the news of U.S. military actions in Iran. However, it quickly recovered much of its losses, demonstrating its underlying strength. After briefly falling below $99,000 on June 22nd, Bitcoin has since seen a strong recovery, trading around $107,000 - $108,000as of June 26th. This quick rebound from a major external shock highlights the market's ability to absorb negative news.

Looking ahead, key price levels will dictate Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. If Bitcoin can maintain its footing above the psychological $100,000 mark and consolidate around its current levels, we could anticipate further upward movement towards its previous highs. Conversely, should renewed geopolitical tensions or other macroeconomic factors cause a reversal, support levels at $104,150 and $103,500 would be crucial to hold. Ethereum, meanwhile, continues to find support around $2,480, facing resistance near $2,660-$2,720.

Bitcoin upside targets: $110,000, $112,500 

Bitcoin downside targets: $104,150, $103,500, $100,000

Ethereum support zone: ~$2,380

Ethereum resistance zone: ~$2,565, $2,720

TABLE OF CONTENTS

How we got here

Jan 2025

Aktien-Check
20.01.2025
Bitcoin price hits new record high - How sustainable is the momentum?

Jan 2025

Aktien-Check
15.01.2025
Crypto markets in uncertainty - What does Trump's inauguration mean?

Dec 2024

Aktien-Check
16.12.2024
BTC's new all-time high of USD 106,000 - strong week ahead

Dec 2024

Institutional Money
02.12.2024
After the Bitcoin rally – is capital now turning to altcoins?

Nov 2024

Stock-World
18.11.2024
Bitcoin on its way to $100,000 – When will altcoin season arrive?

Nov 2024

Stock-World
11.11.2024
Next stop: $90,000? Trump victory gives Bitcoin new all-time high

Nov 2024

Institutional Money
04.11.2024
How the US election could affect Bitcoin & Co

Oct 2024

FinzanzNews-123
24.10.2024
Correlation or diversification: Will digital assets ever decouple from traditional markets?

Sep 2024

Global Brands Magazine
26.09.2024
Why to Use a Private Banking Service

Sep 2024

Yahoo! Finance
13.09.2024
Teroxx Secures Top Spot at Global Brand Awards 2024

Sep 2024

Finanz Aktuell
11.09.2024
Can Bitcoin still crack 100K in 2024 - A guest article by Jannick Broering

Sep 2024

Stock World
02.09.2024
Bitcoin - Will the summer slump lead to further price declines?

Aug 2024

Cash Online
23.08.2024
Krypto-Regulierung: "Fair competition is made possible in the first place"

Aug 2024

Finanzen.ch
22.08.2024
Expert - US consumers are turning away from risk assets such as Bitcoin

Aug 2024

Finanzen.net
21.08.2024
Expert sees obstacles to investing in risk assets such as Bitcoin

Aug 2024

Wallstreet Online
19.08.2024
Bitcoin under pressure - 'summer slump' and possible sales by the US government

How we got here

Maked Update
26.08.2024
Teroxx G Top Spot at Global Brand Awards 2024
Maked Update
26.08.2024
Can Bitcoin still crack 100K in 2024 - A guest article by Jannick Broering
Maked Update
26.08.2024
Will the summer slump lead to further price declines?
Maked Update
26.08.2024
Teroxx G Top Spot at Global Brand Awards 2024